The Paddock Report: Seahawks Missing Half Their Starting Lineup, and We're Taking the Points

Seattle is laying 8.5 at home in a divisional game, and that's a lot to ask of a team missing its starting quarterback. Sam Darnold is out, and the Seahawks also won't have left tackle Charles Cross, guard Quenton Nelson, receiver Rashid Shaheed, or two starters from the front seven. Seattle's home margin this season is only +1.4 per game, with 21.8 points scored and 20.4 allowed, so the cushion at home is thinner than the spread suggests.

Arizona has problems of its own. The defense is leaky, giving up 29.75 points per game. But the Cardinals have been competitive on the road at 3-2, averaging 26.2 points per game away from home. Divisional familiarity tends to keep these games closer than the talent gap implies.

The last meeting went Seattle's way, 31-7 on September 20, and that result also cashed our under 41.0 call. That game is a reminder of how much the Seahawks can do when healthy, which is exactly why this number needs a closer look.

Our pick is Arizona +8.5, confidence 2 out of 5. Put plainly, we think Seattle wins, but not by enough to cover. A backup-quarterback favorite laying more than a touchdown in a division game is the kind of number that invites a backdoor cover, so we're taking the points with a modest stake.