Ravens limp into Indy with a rookie under center — can the total stay grounded?

Week 1 in Lucas Oil Stadium and we've got two teams trying to figure out who's throwing the football. Baltimore trots out Joe Fagnano for his first regular-season snap after leaning on the ground game all last year — 156.6 rush yards per contest, barely cracking 193 through the air. That's not a recipe for fireworks, especially when your new signal-caller is learning on the job against a Colts defense that held opponents under 24 per game in 2025.

Indianapolis isn't exactly lighting up the scoreboard with confidence either. Daniel Jones takes over after a spotty 13-game campaign last season, and while the Colts averaged a respectable 27.4 points, that was with different pieces in place. Now they're banking on a quarterback who's been more question mark than exclamation point.

Both defenses were stout last year, and Week 1 rust is real. Offenses typically lag behind in September, and when you've got two teams breaking in new QBs with limited passing upside, you're looking at a grind-it-out affair. DarkHorse likes the under 47.5 here with moderate confidence, and it's hard to argue. Expect conservative game plans, plenty of three-and-outs, and a final score that leaves the over bettors cursing their optimism.