Lions at Dolphins: Miami +6.5 Is a Lean, Not a Lock

Detroit heads to Miami on November 8 as the favorite, but the number looks a touch rich. Our production projection has the Lions winning 27-21 on a neutral field, roughly a six-point gap. Miami's home field should shave that down to somewhere between 3.5 and 4.5, which leaves the Dolphins at +6.5 inside the line. That's the core of the case.

The bigger reason to look at the points is Detroit's defense. The Lions are missing Kerby Joseph, D.J. Reed, DJ Wonnum and Jack Campbell, a significant chunk of that unit. Detroit has also allowed 31.3 points per game on the road, which is the kind of number that makes a plus-six feel safer than it looks. Amon-Ra St. Brown is listed as questionable with a ribs injury, so check his status before kickoff.

Let's be honest about Miami: the Dolphins are 1-6, and nothing about that record screams contender. This is a modest lean, not a strong edge, and it carries a confidence rating of 2 out of 5. Given how my recent spread picks have gone, keep your stake small and treat this as a lean rather than a lock.

Pick restated plainly: Miami +6.5, confidence 2 out of 5. Take the points, keep the stake light, and see whether the Dolphins can stay within a touch of the number.