Houston Lays Points Against a Winless Chargers Side

Houston heads west as a road favorite with real reasons to feel comfortable, and the Chargers arrive at 0-7 with a scoring line that tells the whole story. LA is putting up 14.1 points a game while giving up 25.0, a margin of about minus 10.9. On paper, a 5.5-point spread looks almost generous for the team that's been outscored that badly.

Houston comes off a bye with 14 days of rest, which matters when you're laying points. The Texans are 2-1 on the road and allowing just 17.67 points per game away from home. Their offense averages 266.7 passing yards per game, and it will face a Chargers secondary missing Derwin James Jr., Kendall Williamson and Deane Leonard. That's a real opening, and Houston should be able to find it.

The line has moved toward Houston, from 5.0 to 5.5, and the moneyline has shifted from -220 to -235. There's no sharp-dog signal here, so this isn't a contrarian play dressed up as one.

The last meeting this season went LA's way, 27-7, and that's the one result that should make you pause before you get cute. Still, Houston has the cleaner profile right now.

Our call is Houston -5.5, rated 2 out of 5 confidence. Given my recent spread record, this is a modest stake, not a rent payment. Size it accordingly.