Patriots limp into Buffalo needing life support, but seven points is a gift in the AFC East meat grinder

The Bills roll into Week 5 sitting pretty at 3-0, while New England's offense has been about as productive as a broken vending machine—12 points per game, and a ghastly 8.0 on the road through two losses. Buffalo should win this game. Probably will win comfortably. But seven points in a divisional slugfest? That's where things get interesting.

History tells us AFC East blood feuds play tighter than the spread suggests, typically 1.5-2 points closer than the market expects. New England's defense has been the lone bright spot, allowing just 17 per game and keeping them in fights they have no business being in. The Pats can't score, sure, but they can make Josh Allen work for it, grind clock, and keep this thing ugly enough to sneak in a backdoor cover late.

Buffalo's the better team—no question. But divisional games are different animals, and seven feels like an overreaction to New England's offensive futility and the Bills' hot start. We're riding the Patriots at plus-7. They don't need to win; they just need to stay annoying enough to cash the ticket when Buffalo takes its foot off the gas in the fourth quarter. Rivalry games don't respect talent gaps the way they should.