Rockies Stun Cardinals 8-6 as Freeland Outduels Liberatore in Busch Stadium Upset

Well, that starting pitching advantage sure evaporated in a hurry. The Rockies waltzed into Busch Stadium and torched the Cardinals 8-6, making our -158 investment on St. Louis look about as sharp as a bowling ball. Kyle Freeland—yes, the guy sporting a 6.81 ERA—somehow found enough to outduel Matthew Liberatore, flipping the script on what looked like a comfortable pitching mismatch on paper.

The Cardinals' bats showed up just enough to make it interesting with six runs, but Colorado's offense exploited every crack in Liberatore's armor and then some. That 1.84 ERA gap we leaned on? Turns out it meant absolutely nothing when the Rockies plated eight. St. Louis couldn't capitalize on home field, couldn't get the shutdown performance we needed from their starter, and ultimately couldn't cover the number.

The market had this at 58.9 percent Cardinals, we pushed it to 62-63 percent based on pitching edge and venue—and got punched square in the mouth. Sometimes the road underdog with the bloated ERA just decides to show up. Credit to Colorado for executing when it mattered. As for us? Back to the drawing board. Tough miss, plain and simple.