Mets +1.5 Worth a Swing Despite Yesterday's Brewers Stumble

We whiffed on Milwaukee yesterday at -160, but here's the thing: both clubs trotted out pitchers who couldn't locate the strike zone with GPS, and the Mets still found a way to squeak out a 3-2 win at Citi Field. Tonight's encore features Robert Stock (5.40 ERA, 1.68 WHIP) for the Brewers against Dustin May (6.00 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) for the Mets—a matchup that screams "batting practice" more than "pitcher's duel."

The market's hanging Milwaukee as a -160 favorite again, but the Mets have been money at home lately, going 6-1 in their last seven with a tidy 3.43 runs scored per game and just 2.57 allowed. That's a home-field edge you can't ignore when the pitching matchup is essentially a coin flip between two guys who hand out baserunners like Halloween candy.

We're riding Mets +1.5 at a confidence of 3 out of 5. With two hittable arms on the bump and New York's recent home dominance, this spread has legitimate cover value at 53.2% implied probability. The Brewers might win outright, but in a potential slugfest, give me the extra cushion and the home nine that's been cashing tickets.