Pirates Look to Exploit Mathews' Shaky Stuff in St. Louis

The Pirates roll into Busch Stadium with a rest advantage and a pitching edge that's hard to ignore. Jared Jones takes the bump for Pittsburgh sporting a 4.76 ERA and 1.25 WHIP—not Cy Young numbers, but they look downright elite compared to what Quinn Mathews is bringing for the Cardinals. Mathews has been getting shelled lately, posting a bloated 6.43 ERA and 1.79 WHIP that screams "fade me." That's a 1.67 ERA gap, folks, and in a sport where margins are razor-thin, that's a canyon.

Pittsburgh already took a piece out of St. Louis back in May, cruising to a 6-2 win, and while the Pirates have stumbled to 3-6 in their last nine road tilts, context matters. The Cardinals are grinding through back-to-back games while the Bucs enjoyed two days off to recharge. Fresh legs, better arm on the mound—it's not rocket science.

DarkHorse has the Pirates at -118, a confidence level of 2 out of 5, but the value proposition is clear. The market's pricing this closer to a coin flip when the pitching mismatch and rest disparity suggest Pittsburgh should be winning this closer to 56-58% of the time. Jones' 10.19 K/9 gives him strikeout upside, and Mathews' peripherals suggest more pain is coming. Ride the Buccos.