Rangers Limping Into Minnesota After Another Beatdown

The Rangers roll into Target Field looking like they'd rather be anywhere else, and who could blame them? Texas is 0-4 against the Twins this season, getting absolutely smoked by an average of 8.75-2.25 per game. Two nights ago it was 10-2, and frankly it wasn't that close. When a team has your number like this, the baseball gods aren't exactly whispering suggestions to fade them.

Nathan Eovaldi takes the ball for Texas with his 4.27 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, facing Bailey Ober who checks in at 4.21 and 1.26. That's basically a coin flip on paper—the ERA gap is a microscopic 0.06. But context matters, and the Rangers' road form is ugly: 3-3 with six runs allowed per game away from home. Meanwhile, Minnesota is comfortable at home and has been feasting on this exact opponent all season long.

DarkHorse is backing the Twins at +108, and it's hard to argue. The market is giving Minnesota a 46% implied win probability, but when you've dominated a team four straight times and the pitching matchup is dead even, that number feels light. Texas showed us their hand already this week. Expect Minnesota to cash it again.

The Play: Twins +108