Mets Ride Thornton's Arm Against Overmatched Pecko in Sunday Finale

The Mets just boat-raced Houston 6-2 on Saturday, and Sunday's pitching matchup suggests more of the same. Zac Thornton takes the hill sporting a 2.88 ERA and 1.15 WHIP—elite numbers that look downright obscene next to Ethan Pecko's ghastly 7.88 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. We're talking about a five-run ERA gap, folks. That's not a mismatch; that's a mercy rule waiting to happen.

Sure, the Astros bring the lumber with Yordan Alvarez (1.05 OPS) and Isaac Paredes (0.78 OPS) ready to do damage, but even Houston's firepower has limits when their starter is handing out baserunners like Halloween candy. The Mets are 7-4 at home, averaging over three runs per game at Citi Field, and they just proved yesterday they can solve Astros pitching.

DarkHorse has the Mets at -121, implying about 55% win probability, but Thornton's dominance suggests the true number is closer to 58-60%. That's value in a market that hasn't fully priced in how cooked Pecko looks right now. Lay the short price and ride the arm advantage. Houston's bats are dangerous, but not dangerous enough to overcome this canyon-sized pitching gap.

The Pick: Mets -121