Miles and the Jays Look to Even the Series After Yesterday's Slugfest

Toronto took it on the chin last night, watching Baltimore's bats wake up in a 7-4 drubbing that had the Rogers Centre faithful heading for the exits early. Now the Jays need Spencer Miles to restore order in the series finale, and the numbers say he's more than capable. Miles brings a sparkling 2.77 ERA and 1.05 WHIP to the bump—a full run better than Kyle Bradish, who's been serviceable but hardly dominant at 3.91 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. That's the kind of pitching gap that wins September games when lineups are grinding through back-to-back contests.

Sure, Baltimore's got the thunder with Pete Alonso (.85 OPS) and Christian Encarnacion-Strand (.80 OPS) providing pop, and they just proved they can score in bunches. But Toronto's catching them tired after yesterday's slugfest, and Miles has been money all season. The market's pricing the Jays at -115, which implies barely better than a coin flip—disrespectful given the starter advantage and home field. DarkHorse likes Toronto at that number with moderate confidence (3/5). It's not a screaming play, but when you've got the better arm on your own turf at near pick-em odds, you take it. Jays even this thing up before heading home.