Reds Get Another Crack at May After Yesterday's Slugfest

Twenty-four hours after the Brewers hung 10 on Cincinnati in a wild shootout, we're running it back with Dustin May on the bump for Milwaukee. That 6.41 ERA and 1.53 WHIP aren't typos—May's been genuinely hittable all season, and the Reds just proved they can get to him and his bullpen. The Brewers are -162 favorites here, leaning on their stellar 3.47 team ERA to carry the load, but Andrew Abbott isn't some batting practice thrower. His 4.49 ERA is mediocre, sure, but Elly De La Cruz (.83 OPS) and Sal Stewart (.82 OPS) provide enough pop in this lineup to keep things competitive at Great American Ball Park.

The market prices this as a near-coinflip—53.1% home probability—which tells you everything about Milwaukee's lack of dominance despite the money line. The Reds have won six of their last ten and historically cover the +1.5 at a 64% clip at home. After yesterday's offensive explosion, confidence in a Brewers blowout feels misplaced. We're backing Reds +1.5 at low confidence, banking on home cooking and May's continued struggles to keep this within a run or push it to extras. Cincinnati's got enough firepower to make this interesting again.