Nationals Cash Home Chalk Behind Cavalli's Arm and Late-Inning Insurance

The Nationals took care of business at home, outlasting the Blue Jays 8-6 in a game that validated every inch of DarkHorse's -136 price tag. Cade Cavalli delivered exactly what the scouting report promised—his elite strikeout stuff kept Toronto's bats guessing through six frames, staking Washington to an early lead that proved just enough when the bullpen got wobbly late.

Shane Bieber, meanwhile, continued his season-long struggle to locate. The former Cy Young winner got tagged early and often, surrendering five runs before the fifth inning and proving once again that his 4.70 ERA isn't a mirage—it's who he is right now. That 1.12 ERA gap between starters wasn't just a number on paper; it was the difference in a two-run game.

Toronto mounted a spirited comeback, scratching across four late runs to make things interesting, but the Nationals' offense had already done enough damage. Washington's home-field edge and superior starting pitching carried the day, just as the model projected. The pick hit clean at -136, a textbook example of trusting pitcher differentials and not overthinking recent form. Sometimes the sharper arm wins, and tonight Cavalli was that arm. Onward.