Rays Should Handle Business Against Resurgent But Overmatched White Sox

The White Sox have clawed their way to respectability lately with a 9-6 run over their last 15, but walking into the Trop on a Friday night against Nick Martinez is a different animal entirely. Martinez has been filthy this season—2.45 ERA, 1.10 WHIP—and he gets to face an Erick Fedde who's been decidedly less filthy at 4.25 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. That's an 1.80 ERA gap between starters, which is basically the Grand Canyon in baseball terms.

Tampa Bay has been a buzzsaw at home lately, going 5-2 in their last seven at Tropicana Field while allowing a microscopic 2.43 runs per game. Their pitching staff collectively sits at 3.69 ERA and holds opponents to a .228 average—both comfortably better than Chicago's marks. Sure, Munetaka Murakami gives the South Siders some pop with his .92 OPS, but one bat doesn't overcome this kind of systemic mismatch.

The Rays took the April meeting 5-3, and nothing about the current form suggests a different outcome. DarkHorse is backing Tampa Bay at -142, projecting their true win probability closer to 60-62 percent when the market only implies 56.3. It's not a sexy number, but sometimes the smart money is boring money. Lay the juice and move on.