Red Sox bats keep this one tight despite Yankees' ace on the bump

The Yankees trot out their ace Cam Schlittler (2.16 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) on Friday night, and the bookmakers have responded accordingly with a hefty -170 moneyline. But here's the rub: New York needs to win by two runs to cover the spread, and their current roster construction says good luck with that. Judge, Stanton, and Volpe are all sidelined, leaving a patchwork lineup that's been scraping by on fumes. Bellinger and Grisham just came off the IL—hardly the murderers' row you'd bet your mortgage on.

Meanwhile, Boston brings a legitimate offense to the Bronx. Contreras (.92 OPS), Abreu (.79), and Rafaela (.78) have been raking, and the Sox are averaging over five runs per game in their last fifteen. Sure, Patrick Sandoval (4.54 ERA, 1.76 WHIP) is eminently hittable, but this Red Sox squad owns a 5-1 season series edge over the Yankees for a reason—they show up in this rivalry.

Yankee Stadium's short porch works both ways, compressing margins in a game where the favorite's recent run differential barely exceeds one per contest. History backs the away dog at +1.5 roughly 60% of the time. We're riding Red Sox +1.5 with modest confidence—Boston keeps it competitive even if Schlittler deals.