Cardinals Roll Again After Shutout Drubbing of Cincinnati

The Cardinals just blanked Cincinnati 7-0 yesterday, and now they're sending Kyle Leahy back out to twist the knife. Leahy's been the more reliable arm all season—his 3.59 ERA and 1.35 WHIP edge Andrew Abbott's 3.89/1.40 line by enough to matter when you're laying juice. Abbott hasn't been awful, but he's handing the ball to a Reds bullpen that's bleeding 5.0 runs per game on the road. That's not a recipe for keeping pace in a bandbox like Busch Stadium.

St. Louis owns this season series 5-2 with a plus-3.0 run differential, and their home bats have been steady at 4.0 runs per game. Cincinnati's shown some grit lately at 8-7 over their last 15, but momentum means squat when the pitching matchup tilts this hard. The Cardinals are -142, which implies about 58.7% probability, but the underlying numbers suggest they should be closer to 60-plus percent favorites. That's where the value lives.

DarkHorse likes Cardinals -142 here with moderate confidence. Yes, we whiffed on the Reds yesterday—sometimes you back the wrong horse. But doubling down on St. Louis with Leahy dealing and Cincinnati's pen leaking? That's the sharper side tonight.