Cubs Keep It Close Despite Misiorowski's Dominance

The Brewers trot out Jacob Misiorowski tonight, and let's be clear: the kid is filthy. A 1.97 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and striking out 13 per nine makes him one of the nastiest arms in baseball right now. Milwaukee is a hefty -220 favorite for good reason. But here's the thing—DarkHorse likes the Cubs +1.5, and the logic holds water.

David Peterson's 6.09 ERA is a dumpster fire, no sugarcoating that. But Chicago's bats have been scorching lately, averaging 7.07 runs per game over their last 15, with Pete Crow-Armstrong posting a .950 OPS. They're not rolling over for anyone. More importantly, Milwaukee's bullpen is gassed—seven straight days of work with multiple arms on the IL. That's a recipe for late-game vulnerability.

The Brewers aren't exactly steamrolling opponents either. Their run differential over the last 15 games is a pedestrian +0.2, hardly the stuff of blowout artists. Yesterday's 4-3 nail-biter? That's the script here. Misiorowski will deal, but the Cubs have the offense to hang around and the Brewers lack the bullpen depth to slam the door. Take the run and a half. Chicago keeps this tight.