Astros Bring the Bats to Queens, But Mets Won't Roll Over Easy

The Astros roll into Citi Field on Friday night with a clear edge on paper, and DarkHorse likes Houston moneyline at -130, though we're keeping confidence modest at 2-out-of-5. Hunter Brown takes the ball with a 3.51 ERA and 1.33 WHIP — not ace material, but a step ahead of the Mets' Christian Scott, who's been serviceable at 3.73/1.32. The real story is the lineup disparity. Yordan Alvarez is crushing at 1.04 OPS, and the Astros trot out three bats north of .750 OPS with Walker and Paredes providing secondary punch. Meanwhile, the Mets are running a skeleton crew with Soto and Polanco sidelined. Their projected order features exactly two hitters above .720 OPS, and the bottom third is a graveyard — Semien at .62 OPS and Baty at .63 are free outs waiting to happen.

That said, don't sleep on the home cooking. The Mets are 6-3 at Citi this stretch, averaging three runs scored per game while limiting opponents to 3.78. Scott's 11.18 K/9 means he can miss bats when he needs to. Houston should win this, but it's not a slam-dunk. Lay the juice cautiously.