Mets Look to Make It Two Straight Behind Scott's Strikeout Stuff

The Mets just handed the Phillies a 6-3 beatdown last night, and they're not done yet. Saturday's rematch features Christian Scott on the bump for New York, and the numbers tell you everything: Scott's 3.76 ERA and 10.85 K/9 rate make him a legitimate weapon, especially compared to what Philadelphia is trotting out. Andrew Painter's 5.54 ERA and bloated 1.44 WHIP scream regression waiting to happen. That's a 1.78 ERA gap we're talking about—massive in a September divisional scrap.

Sure, the Phillies pack punch with Harper and Schwarber both posting OPS marks in the .860s, but superior bats don't always overcome inferior pitching, particularly on the road. The Mets are catching -125 at Citi Field, which the market prices at about 55.6% win probability. Factor in Scott's strikeout upside and home cooking, and you're realistically looking at closer to 58-59%—that's value, plain and simple.

DarkHorse nailed the Mets at -110 yesterday and they're back on them today at -125. The confidence sits at 3/5, which feels about right given Philly's offensive firepower, but the pitching mismatch is too glaring to ignore. Lay the price and ride the hot hand.