Mets Survive Scare, Squeak Past Nats 5-4 as DarkHorse Cashes

The Mets needed every last out to escape with a 5-4 win over Washington on Tuesday night, but a win's a win—and DarkHorse's Mets -143 pick hits the books as another W. Sean Manaea wasn't exactly dealing (4.13 ERA coming in), but he did enough to keep the Nationals' anemic road offense in check through the middle innings. Washington entered 1-8 away from home, averaging a pathetic 3.11 runs per game on the road, and while they managed four runs here, it wasn't nearly enough firepower to overcome New York's home-field edge.

The Mets' balanced lineup—led by Francisco Lindor, Francisco Alvarez, and Jared Young—manufactured just enough run support to outlast Brad Lord and the Nats' bullpen. CJ Abrams did his part for Washington with his .90 OPS bat in the mix, but one elite stick doesn't win ballgames when the rest of your lineup is stuck in neutral. The Nationals' road woes continue, and the Mets' home cooking at Citi Field proved decisive once again.

DarkHorse identified modest value in that -143 line (58.8% implied), banking on New York's superior depth and Washington's travel struggles. The model called it clean. Cash it, move on, and let's keep stacking wins.