Yankees Look to Bounce Back After Tight Loss to Jays

The Bronx got a little quieter last night after Toronto squeaked out a 4-3 win, but the Yankees are back home Sunday with Carlos Rodón on the bump and a chance to even the weekend set. Rodón's been solid this year—3.22 ERA, 1.23 WHIP—and he's got a half-run ERA cushion over Blue Jays starter José Soriano, who's been stingy (2.76 ERA) but raises some red flags. Soriano's strikeout rate sits at a meager 4.96 per nine, and that 1.35 WHIP suggests he's living dangerously. Eventually, traffic on the bases catches up.

The Yankees' staff has been the better unit all season, posting a 3.20 team ERA compared to Toronto's 3.96, and that gap matters in a coin-flip series. Yes, the Jays can swing it on the road—5.5 runs per game away from home—but laying Yankees -140 (58.3% implied) looks like value when the underlying numbers suggest closer to 55-56% is fair. DarkHorse nailed the Jays yesterday at -110; today we're flipping the script. New York's pitching depth and home cooking should be enough to get the split. Take the Yankees and don't overthink it.