Red Bulls Can Steal Points in Columbus Despite Road Woes

The Crew welcome Red Bull New York to Lower.com Field on Saturday, and while Columbus should be favored at home, there's more value on the visitors than the market suggests. DarkHorse is backing Red Bull +0.5 at moderate confidence, and the underlying numbers tell you why.

New York's attack generates 1.748 xGF per game—elite stuff—but they've somehow managed to finish a staggering 11.42 goals below expectation this season. Columbus isn't much better, sitting 8.03 goals below their own xG. Both sides are due for positive regression, but here's the kicker: the Crew's defense has been leaky (1.71 GA/game, 1.313 xGA/game), and Red Bull's quality in the final third should exploit that. They already did once this year, winning 3-2 in Columbus back in May.

The Crew are on shorter rest (three days versus two) and have been mediocre at home (4-4 record), while their road form is abysmal (0-5-2). Red Bull's away splits (2-4-1) aren't pretty either, but they've actually been slightly better on the road than at home. With the +0.5 cushion, a draw cashes the ticket. Columbus should create chances, but can they finish? Their track record says no. Take the points.