D.C. United limp into Fort Lauderdale looking like roadkill, and Inter Miami's front line is licking its chops

D.C. United roll into South Florida having forgotten how to finish dinner, sitting on a brutal minus-7.0 goals-versus-expected differential that screams "cursed in front of net." But here's the thing: their underlying attack isn't terrible—1.66 xG per game says they're creating chances, just butchering them. Regression to the mean is coming, and facing Miami's suspect defensive metrics (conceding 1.73 xGA per contest) might be exactly the cure for those finishing yips.

Meanwhile, Inter Miami have been an absolute wagon at home, banging in three goals per match across nine fixtures at Chase Stadium. With nearly 2.2 expected goals generated per outing, they're not just getting lucky—they're systematically carving teams apart. D.C.'s back line has been Swiss cheese all season, and two weeks of rest won't magically patch those holes.

Both sides are fully fit after 13-14 days off, so no excuses about tired legs. Miami took the March meeting 2-1, but that scoreline undersold the gulf in quality. DarkHorse likes over 3.5 goals here at moderate confidence, and it's hard to argue. Miami should feast, and if D.C. finally converts even half their chances, this one sails over the number. Bring your calculator and a scorecard.