San Jose limps into BBVA Stadium and Houston should put them out of their misery

The Earthquakes are a walking disaster right now, winless in five (0-4-1) and leaking nearly three goals per game during that stretch. The underlying numbers are even uglier: San Jose ranks dead last in finishing efficiency with a brutal -1.57 goals versus expected goals, meaning they're creating chances but couldn't finish a meal, let alone a scoring opportunity. They're conceding 1.7 xG per match, and Houston's attack — modest as it is at 1.18 xG for per game — won't need to be spectacular to find joy.

Houston, meanwhile, has turned BBVA Stadium into a fortress. They're 5-0-1 at home in their last six, allowing a microscopic 0.17 goals per game and riding a 4-1 run in all competitions. This isn't a flashy side, but they defend with discipline and punish sloppy opponents. San Jose qualifies as very sloppy.

DarkHorse likes Houston -0.5 at moderate confidence, and it's hard to argue. The Dynamo's home form is elite, San Jose can't stop the bleeding, and the half-goal cushion eliminates draw risk. Houston should handle business and send the Quakes back to California with another loss in the bag. Lay the short number with confidence.