St. Louis CITY SC looks to flip the script in San Jose after April heartbreak

Remember when San Jose hung three on St. Louis back in April? Well, the Earthquakes you're getting in mid-August are a completely different animal – and not in a good way. San Jose's stumbling into this one on fumes, going 1-3-1 over their last five with a leaky defense surrendering 2.6 goals per game. Meanwhile, St. Louis has quietly become one of MLS's stingiest sides, allowing just 0.8 goals per game in their last five while going 4-0-1.

Here's the kicker: St. Louis has been absurdly unlucky in front of goal all season. Their xgoalsVsXgoals sits at -6.37, meaning they should have buried at least six more than they actually have. That kind of finishing drought doesn't last forever, and regression to the mean is coming. The Quakes are also down two projected starters in Jonathan Gonzalez and DeJuan Jones, both nursing lower body injuries – never ideal when you're already struggling defensively.

DarkHorse likes St. Louis CITY SC +0.5 here at 3/5 confidence. The market has this nearly even at 52.2% away win probability, but that feels generous to a San Jose side that's circling the drain. You're getting the draw as a win with St. Louis, who've been the better team for months now. Sometimes the value hides in plain sight.