New England Stuns Philly in May, But Can They Survive the Rematch?

The Revolution pulled off a 2-1 heist at Subaru Park back in May, but don't let that fool you—this Philadelphia side is a different animal now. The Union are averaging a scorching 3.1 goals per game over their last ten outings, and their underlying numbers (2.022 xGF/game) back up the carnage. Meanwhile, New England's backline has been a sieve lately, coughing up two goals per game over their last five. When a defense that porous (1.574 xGA/game on the season) meets an attack this hot, you'd better buckle up.

We're riding the over 3.5 goals here, and it's not a reach. Philadelphia's offensive firepower at home should punish a Revolution squad that's been bleeding chances all fall. Sure, New England found magic in the spring matchup, but lightning rarely strikes twice when your defense is this compromised. The market has this at 45.7% to go over, but the matchup screams shootout potential. Philly will press, New England will leak, and if the Revs want to keep pace they'll need to trade punches. Expect fireworks at Subaru Park—this one should fly over the number.