Knicks Visit Cleveland, Cavs Catch 5.5 Points at Home

New York heads to Cleveland on November 7 with the Cavaliers in a rough spot. Cleveland is on the second night of a back-to-back, its fourth game in seven days, and it will be missing Jarrett Allen and Sam Merrill. Those are real problems, and they are the main reason this isn't a sure thing.

Still, the number looks inflated. Over eight games, these teams have nearly identical scoring margins, with Cleveland at +4.6 and New York at +4.9. The Cavaliers hold a clear efficiency edge, 114.3 to 110.6, and they are 4-1 at home.

Our model stacks home court, the back-to-back, and the injury and fatigue gap, and comes out with a fair line near Knicks -3 to -3.5. That makes a 5.5-point spread look generous to the home side.

The Paddock Report pick is Cavaliers +5.5 at -115, rated 2 out of 5 for confidence. In plain terms, we like the home underdog to keep this closer than the market expects. This is a modest value play, not a max bet. Check the injury report before tip, because the whole case depends on who actually suits up.