Rockets at Mavericks: Preseason Slog Points to the Under

The Rockets roll into Dallas for Friday's preseason opener, and if you're expecting offensive fireworks, you're watching the wrong exhibition. This is October basketball where starters get their 20 minutes of cardio and third-stringers audition for G-League assignments—not exactly a recipe for scoreboard pyrotechnics.

Here's the tempo trap: Houston plodded through last season at 99.4 possessions per game while Dallas pushed a respectable 104.6 clip. In preseason, the slower team dictates pace because nobody's game-planning to exploit tempo mismatches. Expect the Rockets to grind possessions into dust while both coaching staffs shuffle 15-deep rotations like deck chairs.

Dereck Lively II's day-to-day status adds another wrinkle—Dallas' rim protection and lob threat potentially sidelined means more camp bodies clogging lanes and bricking open looks. Offensive rhythm doesn't exist when you're running sets with guys who won't make the final roster.

The board sits at 221.5, and DarkHorse likes the under with moderate confidence. It's preseason math: limited minutes for competent scorers plus maximum minutes for guys auditioning to play in Sioux Falls equals a whole lot of ugly basketball. Both teams will prioritize evaluation over execution, which historically translates to contested jumpers, turnovers, and possessions that die with a whimper. Fade the October scoring parade.