The Bulls Are Getting 9.5 at Home, and We're Taking Chicago

Philadelphia visits Chicago with three games in seven days, while the Bulls have had four days off. Rest won't decide this game alone, but it's the kind of edge that matters when the spread is this big.

The Bulls sit at -18 points per game, which is ugly, and we're not pretending otherwise. But the 76ers aren't a juggernaut on the road either. They've averaged 107.2 points away from home and allowed 107.6, which looks roughly even. Philly also plays at a deliberate pace, around 102.5 possessions, which tends to keep margins tighter than the headlines suggest.

Our blended point-differential projection, with home court factored in, lands near 8 points for Chicago. That's a bit under the 9.5 on the board, so the value is slight rather than dramatic.

The line has already moved a full point toward Philadelphia, which we suspect reflects public money backing a 1-7 opponent. Last time these teams met, on November 2, Philly won 126-107 and covered our 11.5-point spread, so the recent form favors the visitors.

Our pick: Bulls +9.5, confidence 2 out of 5. This is a small-sample, low-conviction lean, not a lock. It's a fit for anyone who likes home dogs with rest on their side.