Mavericks Still Have the Edge, Even on a Back-to-Back

Dallas is on the second night of a back-to-back, and Indiana has had two days of rest. That fatigue is real, and our model takes roughly 2-4 points off the Mavericks for it. But the gap between these teams is bigger than that discount. Dallas averages 112.1 points while allowing 109.1. Indiana puts up 110.3 and gives up 114.2. The Mavs also lead in offensive efficiency, 111.1 to 108.2. Add home court, and the math still makes Dallas a bit better than the number.

The pick: Mavericks -2.5, confidence 3 out of 5. In plain English, we like Dallas to win by more than two and a half. It's not a lock, and the sample is thin. These teams have played only 9 and 10 games, so treat every number here with some skepticism.

The Pacers are 0-5 at home, an ugly split for a team that needs to change its luck. Dallas has the edge on the scoreboard and in efficiency.

These two already met this season. Dallas rolled 121-105 on October 23, and we got that one wrong. Our over 237.5 missed, since the game finished with 226 points. So we're not chasing totals here. The spread is where we're leaning.