The Pistons Have the Rest, the Health and the Better Tape

Detroit comes into South Florida with two days of rest and a nearly full roster. Miami is on the back end of a back-to-back, and it is missing Klay Thompson and Pelle Larsson, about 50 expected minutes gone from the rotation. That is a lot of minutes to lose.

The efficiency gap backs it up. The Pistons' offensive efficiency is 114.4 against Miami's 109.2, and Detroit is allowing 107.8 points per game while the Heat give up 120.1. Detroit also beat Miami 128-111 when these teams met on October 23, so this matchup has already shown what the Pistons can do.

Our published call is Pistons -4.5, rated 3 out of 5 confidence. In plain terms, we think Detroit wins by more than four and a half points even after crediting Miami for home court. Rest, depth and efficiency all point the same way, and it would take an unusually hot Heat shooting night to keep this within the number.

Our over 235.5 on that October meeting hit, so the desk has some momentum here. That is not a guarantee. Lay the number with your eyes open, size it like a 3-out-of-5 play, and let Detroit do the rest.