Grizzlies and Hawks Kick Off Preseason—Expect a Slog, Not a Shootout

The Grizzlies roll into Atlanta for the first preseason tune-up, and if you're expecting October fireworks, pump the brakes. DarkHorse is riding the under 231.5 with moderate confidence, and the logic is airtight: preseason basketball is a different animal.

This isn't about talent—both squads have firepower when healthy. CJ McCollum, Jerami Grant, Jalen Johnson, and Ty Jerome can all score when the lights matter. But tonight? They're playing 18-25 minutes tops, then handing the keys to camp bodies auditioning for two-way deals and garbage-time minutes. Offensive efficiency craters when third-stringers run the show, and coaches aren't exactly dialing up ATO masterpieces in Game 1 of October.

Last season, neither team played at a blistering pace—Hawks at 103.8 possessions per game, Grizzlies at 104.1—so we're not banking on a track meet even in ideal conditions. Add in the constant substitutions that kill rhythm, conservative gameplans focused on evaluation over execution, and the reality that nobody's shooting percentages look pretty when rotations are this choppy, and you've got a recipe for a rock fight.

The number assumes regular-season sharpness that simply won't exist. Take the under and don't overthink it.