Pelicans-Heat Preseason Under Has Value as Rotations Run Deep

The Pelicans and Heat tip off their preseason slates Thursday night in Miami, and if you're expecting fireworks, you're watching the wrong sport. DarkHorse AI is backing the under 232.5, and the logic is bulletproof: preseason basketball is a different animal entirely.

This total is set like it's mid-January, hovering near the league's regular-season average around 225. Problem is, October exhibition games don't play that way. Starters log 18-25 minutes max before hitting the pine, while coaches cycle through 15-20 deep rotations stuffed with camp bodies fighting for two-way deals. The result? Possessions dominated by third-stringers who couldn't hit water from a boat, and effort levels that make a Sunday morning pickup game look like Game 7.

Historically, preseason totals get suppressed by 10-15 points compared to regular-season expectations. Stars sit extended stretches. Offensive chemistry is nonexistent. Defenses are ahead of offenses. It's a recipe for ugly basketball and plenty of bricks. Both squads will prioritize evaluation over execution, meaning this one grinds into the 210s without breaking a sweat. Fade the inflated number and ride the under with confidence level 3 out of 5—solid value in a spot where less is definitively more.