Pacers-Pelicans Season Opener: Rust, Injuries, and Sharp Money on the Under

The Smoothie King Center hosts a season opener that looks messier than either fanbase wants to admit. Both squads limped to bottom-tier defensive marks last year—each surrendering 120-plus per night—but don't expect a track meet on Wednesday. The Pacers are down two rotation guards in Aaron Nesmith and T.J. McConnell, gutting the depth that fueled their pace-and-space attack. Indiana's bench suddenly looks thin, and without those secondary ball-handlers, expect more half-court slog and fewer transition buckets.

New Orleans has its own question marks. Dejounte Murray's toe injury has him listed day-to-day, which could hamstring the Pelicans' backcourt chemistry right out of the gate. Even if he suits up, opening night rust is real—coaches tighten rotations, stars shake off cobwebs, and possessions get clunky. The total has already plummeted from 243.0 to 239.5, a clear sign that sharp bettors are hammering the under despite two defenses that couldn't stop a nosebleed last season.

DarkHorse AI is riding that wave with a published under 239.5 pick at 3-out-of-5 confidence. The logic is sound: depleted depth, injury uncertainty, and opening-night conservatism tend to strangle scoring. Fade the preseason hype and follow the money—this one stays low.