Magic 107, Bucks 99, and our Magic -9.5 missed by a point and a half

Orlando won, and we still lost the bet. Our Magic -9.5 needed a margin of 10 or more, and the Magic got home by eight. That's exactly the backdoor risk we flagged when we made the call.

The winner was right. Milwaukee came in at 1-11 overall and 0-5 on the road, and Orlando took care of business. The line moved from 8.5 to 9.5 for a reason, and we followed it, but the number asked for a blowout and the Magic delivered a comfortable win, not a rout.

The margin is where the read broke down. Orlando entered 0-4 at home, averaging just 102.25 points there, and an eight-point finish fits a team that doesn't run away from anybody in its own building. Our projection of 11 to 12 with home court was built on the per-100-possession gap, and that gap showed up in the win column but not in the margin.

Was the analysis wrong? Not on direction. We had the right side and the right team. We overshot on how much a thin, struggling-at-home club would actually win by, and a spread is a bet on the margin, not the winner.

The takeaway for the Stable: when a team is short on healthy rotation players and can't score at home, expect the win without the blowout. We'll be more careful with double-digit laydowns on that profile going forward.