Bulls Catch 11.5 in MSG — Is This Spread Disrespectful or Dead-On?

The Bulls stumble into Madison Square Garden riding a five-game skid and bleeding 128.9 points per night, yet DarkHorse sees value in backing them at +11.5 (confidence 2/5). Chicago is 1-6 and looks cooked on paper, but this number screams overreaction. The market fair probability sits at 48.9%, essentially a coin flip dressed up as a blowout line.

Here's the angle: the Bulls push tempo at 108.2 possessions per game while New York plods along at 99.5. That pace mismatch creates chaos, and chaos creates backdoor covers. The Knicks are also weirdly worse at home offensively, averaging 104.0 PPG at MSG compared to 109.67 on the road. These teams just met six days ago, and New York only won by six (133-127) despite Chicago's defensive trainwreck.

Add Josh Hart's ankle soreness to the equation, and New York's rotation depth gets tested. The Bulls can't stop anyone, but they can run you into uncomfortable possessions and hang around long enough to make this sweaty. Eleven-and-a-half is a mountain. We're not saying Chicago wins outright, but if they keep their foot on the gas pedal, this spread has cover written all over it. Fade the narrative, ride the number.