Pelicans Lean Home Cover: Efficiency Gap Meets Home Court

Brooklyn heads to New Orleans on November 11, and the numbers so far favor the home side. The Pelicans are scoring 111.0 points per 100 possessions and allowing about 115.7, while the Nets are putting up 104.7 and giving up roughly 113.5. On a per-possession basis, New Orleans sits about four points per 100 better than Brooklyn. Add the standard home-court bump and our projection lands around New Orleans by six or seven.

That is the case for our published pick: Pelicans -4.5. In plain terms, New Orleans needs to win by more than four and a half points for the bet to cash. The price is a cheaper -106, and the moneyline has been drifting toward the Pelicans, from about -172 toward -180, which suggests the market is moving in the same direction, at least a little.

Keep your stakes honest, though. This is a 2/5 confidence play, and both teams have only 10 or 11 games behind these figures. Early-season efficiency numbers swing hard, and a few blowouts or garbage-time stretches can distort the picture. Treat this as a modest lean, not a lock, and size it accordingly.