Stars Look to Sweep Blues, But Puck Line Is the Question

Dallas took the first meeting three weeks back with a 2-1 squeaker, and the Blues covered the +1.5 then—a pattern that might repeat Friday night in Big D. The Stars bring the better résumé: last season they averaged 3.33 goals per game and allowed just 2.71, while St. Louis limped along at 2.81 scored and 3.10 surrendered. Between the pipes, Casey DeSmith (.907 save percentage, 2.43 GAA) is a clear upgrade over Jordan Binnington, who's posted a ghastly .873 and 3.33 line early on.

So why are we riding Blues +1.5 again? Because DeSmith isn't elite—he's league-average on a good night—and NHL favorites only cover the puck line about 45-47 percent of the time. The market already prices St. Louis at 57.8 percent to stay within a goal, which tells you the oddsmakers see a tight contest. Add in Dallas opening without Matt Duchene (LTIR) and some uncertainty around Bertucci's IR status despite the projected-starter tag, and the Stars' depth takes a hit. We're not saying the Blues win outright, but asking them to lose by one or steal a point? That's the smarter side. Take St. Louis +1.5 and let Dallas sweat the empty-netter.