Senators Should Feast on Flyers' Lifeless Offense at Canadian Tire Centre

The Flyers limp into Ottawa carrying the kind of offensive futility that makes even bad goaltenders look competent. Philadelphia has managed a pathetic 1.25 goals per game through four contests while hemorrhaging 4.25 against, posting a ghastly minus-3.0 goal differential that screams "fade me." Meanwhile, the Senators are humming along at 3.33 goals per game and catch a massive break in the crease matchup.

Here's where this gets interesting: Dan Vladar has been an absolute sieve for the Flyers through two starts, posting a .863 save percentage and a 5.13 GAA that would make beer league goalies blush. On the other side, Samuel Ersson isn't exactly Dominik Hasek, but his .886 save percentage and 3.85 GAA look Vezina-caliber by comparison. When you're getting plus-goaltending against a team that can't score anyway, the math gets real simple.

DarkHorse likes the Senators at -150, and it's hard to argue. The market's pricing Ottawa at 57.4 percent implied probability, but this feels more like a 65-70 percent proposition given Philadelphia's complete inability to generate offense. Home ice, better netminding, and an opponent in freefall—Ottawa should handle business here without breaking a sweat.