Blues Catch Colorado With Leaky Netminding on Both Sides

The Avalanche open their home slate Saturday night, and the betting public sees an 8-goal opening-night explosion and assumes business as usual in Denver. Not so fast. MacKinnon and company may have lit up Vegas for eight, but Mackenzie Blackwood gave up four in the same breath—his .871 save percentage and 4.00 GAA aren't inspiring confidence behind a blue line that's still sorting itself out. On the other side, Jordan Binnington wasn't much better in the preseason stretch (.873/3.33), but he also backstopped a shutout in St. Louis' opener, and the Blues didn't need fireworks to get the job done.

Here's the rub: when both goaltenders are posting sub-.880 numbers, there's no netminding edge to justify laying a puck-and-a-half with Colorado. The market agrees—this -1.5 is priced at barely better than a coin flip. Historically, NHL favorites cover -1.5 less than half the time, and asking Blackwood to lock down a multi-goal cushion against a disciplined Blues squad that just blanked Seattle feels like chasing recency bias. The sharp move? Take St. Louis +1.5 and let the Avalanche prove they can actually defend before we start laying lumber at altitude.