Brewers Look to Exploit Angels' Pitching Disaster in Anaheim

The Brewers roll into Angel Stadium on Friday with a glaring mismatch on the mound that's too juicy to pass up. Shane Drohan takes the ball for Milwaukee sporting a respectable 3.51 ERA and 1.20 WHIP — not ace numbers, but downright Cy Young-worthy compared to what the Angels are trotting out. Ryan Johnson has been an absolute trainwreck this season, posting a ghastly 7.34 ERA and 1.54 WHIP that screams "batting practice." That's a 3.83 ERA gap, folks. In baseball terms, that's the Grand Canyon.

Sure, the Brewers have been dreadful on the road at 1-5, and Anaheim provides home cooking for the Halos. But when you're getting this kind of starting pitcher advantage, you hammer it. Milwaukee's 3.51 team ERA suggests the bullpen can hold things together if Drohan hands them a lead, while the Angels' staff has been leaking runs all season.

At -162, you're laying moderate juice but getting a matchup where the market is undervaluing the pitching disparity. The implied probability sits around 62%, but the true win expectancy here pushes closer to 64-65% when you account for Johnson's inability to keep the ball in the park. Take the Brewers and don't overthink it.