Mariners-Yankees Under 8.5: Miller Mows Down Depleted Bronx Bats Again

Twenty-four hours after the under cashed in a sleepy 4-1 Yankee win, we're running it back—and the math still screams value. Bryce Miller takes the ball for Seattle, and the right-hander is absolutely dealing this summer: 3.08 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, the kind of stuff that makes depleted lineups look even worse. And depleted is exactly what the Yankees are. No Aaron Judge. No Giancarlo Stanton. No Austin Wells. That's three-fifths of a functional offense sitting on the shelf, leaving a patchwork crew to face one of the American League's sharpest arms.

Adam Warren counters for New York with a 4.18 ERA—not awful, but not the kind of dominant outing that's going to turn this into a slugfest. The combined starter ERA sits at 3.63, and while Yankee Stadium's short porch adds about 0.7 runs to any total, we're still projecting around 7.8 runs in a game posted at 8.5. That's a 0.7-run cushion, and in a sport of inches, that's enormous.

DarkHorse AI likes the under 8.5 at 4-out-of-5 confidence, and frankly, so do we. Miller carved them up yesterday. He'll do it again tonight.