Red Sox Look to Snap Skid Against Hobbled Scherzer in Toronto

The Red Sox stumble into Rogers Centre riding an ugly 0-5 slide, but they might've caught the Blue Jays at the perfect time. Max Scherzer is back from the IL after dealing with back and thumb issues, and his 7.25 ERA and 1.53 WHIP suggest he's pitching more like a 42-year-old with ailments than the Hall of Fame lock we remember. Boston counters with Payton Tolle, who's been quietly excellent at 3.20 ERA and 1.10 WHIP—a staggering 4.05 ERA edge in the starter matchup.

Sure, Toronto just beat Boston 6-4 last night and owns a 7-2 home record in this season series, but that's precisely why the Red Sox are getting -154 juice instead of -200. The market is overreacting to the recent form and undervaluing the pitching mismatch. Boston's staff has been a full half-run better than Toronto's this season (3.51 vs 3.98 ERA), and when you're facing a compromised version of Scherzer, that offensive unit with a .750 OPS should feast.

DarkHorse likes Red Sox ML at -154 with moderate confidence. The skid ends tonight—sometimes the best cure for a slump is a wounded legend on the bump.