Yankees Look to Extend Cardinals' Misery Behind Pitching Edge

The Bronx Bombers took yesterday's opener 2-0, blanking a Cardinals squad that's circling the drain at 3-7 in their last ten. Tonight, they'll try to pile on with Will Warren toeing the rubber against Andre Pallante—and while Pallante's 3.72 ERA looks shinier than Warren's 4.14, don't let that fool you. The real story is what happens after the fifth inning. New York's bullpen has been a fortress all season (3.34 team ERA, 1.19 WHIP) compared to St. Louis's leaky relief corps (4.15 ERA, 1.34 WHIP). When the game gets late, the Cardinals have been hemorrhaging runs.

St. Louis does swing it slightly better (.239 team average versus New York's .232), but good luck manufacturing offense when you're facing a pitching staff that doesn't give you free bases. The Cardinals are 5-10 over their last fifteen—this isn't a hot club catching lightning. The Yankees are -152 here, which translates to about 60% implied probability. That's fair value for a home favorite with superior pitching depth and momentum. It's not a mortgage-the-house play, but backing the Yanks to keep the Cardinals' slide going makes plenty of sense. Lay the juice and ride the better bullpen.