Mets Keep Feeding on Friars as Thornton Takes Ball in Series Rubber Match

The Padres limp into Citi Field for the finale after last night's 2-1 gut-punch extended their misery against New York to three losses in four tries this season. San Diego's bats have been anemic in this series—averaging under two runs per game—and tonight they face Zac Thornton, who's been dealing with a 2.78 ERA and 1.10 WHIP that makes opposing lineups look silly. Robbie Ray counters for the Friars with respectable numbers (3.08 ERA, 1.29 WHIP), but that's a meaningful 0.30 ERA gap, and the Mets have won four straight while allowing barely anything at home.

Sure, San Diego enters with better recent road form at 7-3 in their last ten away, but momentum means squat when you can't score. The Mets have held the Padres to 1.75 runs per game in the season series and just cashed at -120 yesterday. Now they're sitting at near pick-em pricing (-102), which feels like found money given the pitching advantage and home cooking. DarkHorse likes the Mets again at -102 with moderate confidence—not a mortgage play, but the value's there when you've got the better arm and the Padres' bats look this lifeless. Ride the streak.