The Paddock Report: Nets at Hawks, and Why We're Taking Brooklyn +6.5

Hawks host the Nets on November 7, and the number asks Atlanta to win by more than six. We're not buying it. Jalen Johnson is out for the Hawks. He's their leading scorer at 18.3 points a game and their top distributor at 7.9 assists. Jock Landale and Asa Newell are also sidelined, which takes roughly 43.7 expected minutes off the floor. Strip that out and Atlanta's playmaking takes a real hit.

Start with the baseline. Atlanta has scored 115.8 a game and allowed 113.0 this season. With home court added and Johnson's absence priced in, that margin projects to something like a 4 to 5 point win, which puts 6.5 about a point or two too big. Their home split points the same way, 115.0 scored and 120.3 allowed, but it covers only three games. Directionally useful, not bankable.

Rest is a wash. Both teams have three days off and three games in the last seven, so fatigue isn't the story.

Brooklyn is not good right now. They're scoring 106.6 and allowing 112.9, and they've gone 2-6 over their last eight. Nobody should mistake them for a contender.

So the play is Nets +6.5, rated 2 out of 5 confidence. In plain terms, Brooklyn covers if they lose by six or fewer, or win outright. The edge is thin, so size it small or pass.