Bucks Getting Disrespected at Home Against Gassed Pacers Squad

The Bucks are 0-3 and the oddsmakers are still handing out points at Fiserv Forum? Sign me up. Indiana rolls into Milwaukee on the dreaded back-to-back, and if you've been paying attention, you know what that means: legs turn to concrete, rotations get squeezed, and those extra possessions late in the shot clock start clanking off iron. History says B2B teams drop 2-4 points off their usual output, and that's before we talk about Indiana's walking wounded.

The Pacers are already down three rotation guys, and now they're day-to-day on Nesmith and Zubac—with coach all but ruling Zubac out. So they're running on fumes with a skeleton crew while Milwaukee gets a full week of rest and preparation. These teams just met ten days ago and went to the wire, Bucks falling 128-127 in a game that could've gone either way. Now the market expects Indiana to waltz in here and cover on tired legs and a patched-together lineup?

Milwaukee's winless start has created value, pure and simple. The B2B disadvantage alone is worth three points, and we're getting 4.5. Sometimes the market overreacts to records and undervalues situational spots. This is one of those nights.

The play: Bucks +4.5.