Jazz Walk Into Dallas Reeling, Mavs Lay the Points

Utah shows up in Dallas on Nov. 6 in a hole. The Jazz are 1-7 through eight games, 0-5 in their last five, and they've been outscored by an average of about 12 points over that stretch (103.2 for, 115.6 against). Their defense has been the real problem, giving up 119.0 points per game. Dallas is the better team on paper, scoring 111.0 points per 100 possessions to Utah's 103.7 and shooting 46.9% from the floor to the Jazz's 42.9%.

Rest is a wash. Both teams have two days off and three games in seven, so this comes down to production and form. Add the roughly three points of home court for Dallas, and the gap supports a margin a bit above the number, even after we regress for these small eight-game samples.

That's our pick: Mavericks -7.5, confidence 2 out of 5. The line has already moved from -6.5 to -7.5, which eats into the value, so treat this as a small play, not a max bet. Dallas should win this one comfortably, but the price is no longer a bargain. Lean in lightly, and keep your bankroll in check.